Stanford vs. Arizona: Previewing the Cardinal and the Wildcats by the numbers

Two disappointing teams enter - only one will leave with a win. We dive into the numbers to see if the Wildcats can pull off their first conference win of the season.

Each week, we take a look at the Arizona Wildcats’ upcoming match-up and dive into some of the advanced statistics underlying the game. This week, we take a look at a team that entered the year in the top ten and is currently 2-3 in the Pac-12: the Stanford Cardinal.

20.3 - Stanford’s points allowed per game

For all of Stanford’s troubles this year, the Cardinal are still stout defensively. Stanford is allowing only 20.3 points per game this season, which ranks 23rd in FBS. They’re slightly more impressive when you account for opponent and pace, ranking 20th in defensive S&P+.

The problem for the Cardinal is that, despite their reputation, they’re actually better against the pass than against the run. Stanford’s pass defense per S&P+ ranks 18th in the nation while their run defense ranks 63rd. Worse, Alijah Holder, a starting cornerback who was preseason All-Pac-12 third team, is now out for the year. The Cardinal have dealt with injures in the secondary all season, but losing Holder certainly hurts them in the passing game.

Stanford is solid defensively, but the Wildcats may have the opportunity to take advantage of Stanford’s run defense to put some points on the board.

17.0 - Stanford’s points scored per game

On the other side of the ball, Stanford has been garbage. Their 17.0 points per game ranks 125th in FBS. The Cardinal, though, typically take their time on offense and avoid running tempo compared to most other teams in college football. Once you account for that....Stanford’s offense ranks 107th in FBS. I mean, the Stanford offense (3 points) barely outscored the Stanford defense (2 points) in last week’s game against Colorado. Not great.

Stanford’s rushing attack has been okay - not anywhere near as good as a team featuring Christian McCaffrey should be, but not awful - but the passing game has disappointed. That may change this week, as Keller Chryst is replacing Ryan Burns at quarterback. On the other hand, if Chryst were that good, he would have probably started over Burns in the first place.

Fortunately for Stanford, Arizona’s defense is also quite bad, ranking 102nd in FBS per S&P+. This is the classic match-up between the stoppable force and the movable object. I expect this game will be very ugly when these two units are on the field together.

43% - Arizona’s likelihood of winning this game, per S&P+

There is reason for hope, though! S&P+ gives the Wildcats a 43% chance of winning this game. That’s better odds than Arizona has had in any match-up since the Hawaii game over a month ago.

The same theme we’ve echoed all season applies here: Arizona has a decent chance to win this game, but they probably won’t. The Wildcats still aren’t a very good football team, and Stanford is still better. The reason for hope is that the difference between the two teams is relatively small and the Wildcats get to play at home. That means Arizona has a decent chance to finally win a conference game. Let’s hope they do.

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