USC vs. Arizona: Previewing the Trojans and the Wildcats by the numbers

We’ve said “Arizona has a reasonable chance of winning this game” for the past three weeks. Can the Wildcats finally break through against the Trojans? We dove into the numbers to find out.

This week, the USC Trojans make their way to Tucson to play the Arizona Wildcats. With the Trojans surging in recent weeks and the Wildcats continuing to struggle, we took a look at the numbers underlying the match-up to see if the Wildcats have a shot this weekend.

12th - USC’s rank in rushing offense per S&P+

The theme of this preview is very simple: USC is sneaky good. Admittedly, they've lost a few games - they were blown out by Alabama and lost a couple of road games to Stanford and Utah - but there is no phase of the game that they're particularly bad at. They're the 12th best team in the country in rushing offense, per S&P+. Justin Davis is the feature back, rushing the ball 74 times so far this year at 6.3 yards per carry. He doesn't necessarily have the counting stats of some other players as he's only sixth in the conference in rushing yards, but he's managed that average against some pretty stout run defenses. He'll have an easier time against Arizona.

If the Wildcats try to load up to stop the run, USC will punish them through the air. USC is ranked 21st in passing offense efficiency, and freshman quarterback Sam Darnold is second in the conference in pass efficiency among quarterbacks with 100 or more attempts (behind only Jake Browning). At receiver, JuJu Smith-Schuster, in particular, will be a load for Arizona's secondary to handle.

To sum up: USC is good (not otherworldly, but good) at everything on offense. Arizona's defense is in trouble.

23rd - USC’s rank in rushing defense per S&P+

On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats are one of the top rushing teams in the conference. Unfortunately, USC is, sneakily, one of the top teams in the conference at stopping the run. USC ranks 23rd nationally in rush defense, per S&P+, and 18th in defense overall. Again, the counting stats can be deceptive - the Trojans are allowing 149.3 rushing yards per game (which would be 40-50th in the country), but they're allowing less than four yards per carry and had to play Alabama and Stanford. Once you account for their schedule, USC is revealed to be much better than the absolute numbers would indicate.

Whether Brandon Dawkins or Khalil Tate starts, the focus will be on running the ball, and USC is well-positioned to slow that rushing attack down.

26% - the Wildcats’ likelihood of winning this game, per S&P+

S&P+ pegs the Wildcats' chances of winning this game at 26%. This has been the story for the last month now: Arizona has a chance to win this game and pull off the upset, but they probably won't. Arizona had a reasonable chance to knock off Washington and couldn't finish it. They had a reasonable chance of beating UCLA, but they couldn't keep up. And they had a reasonable chance to beat Utah (and even jumped out to an early lead), but couldn't do it.

Arizona has a reasonable chance to win this game. They probably won't. That, really, is the refrain for this year's team.

Arizona +9.5 - the spread in this game

Vegas has a little more faith in the Wildcats than the numbers doing, making USC only 9.5 point favorites (the expected margin, per S&P+, is a little over 11). With so many question marks (whether Nick Wilson is healthy enough to go, who gets the start at quarterback, and so forth), I'm surprised there's even a number, but it probably doesn't matter that much, as the Wildcats have enough talent and interesting wrinkles on offense to put points on the board against anyone, regardless of what running back is healthy and what quarterback plays. The defense will need to step up in a big way to give the team a chance.

Say it with me: Arizona has a reasonable chance to win this game. Maybe this is the week they finally break through.

from Arizona Desert Swarm - All Posts http://ift.tt/2dQTbPX
via IFTTT