Oregon State vs. Arizona: Previewing the game by the Numbers

The advanced statistics tell us that we may be in trouble this week, but we'll take a look at why that might be wrong and what Vegas thinks about this upcoming game.

This week, we're actually going to take a look at some actual advanced statistics that tell us that we need to worry about the Arizona Wildcats losing to the Oregon State Beavers. Then we'll talk about why those statistics are wrong and what they don't account for. Let's dive in to this week's by-the-numbers preview:

65 and 85

I've really tried to avoid looking at the S&P+ ratings for Arizona this season. S&P+ ratings are a "college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games." They're basically KenPom rankings for college football, the sort of statistics that you can either use as evidence your team is really good or dismiss as analytical sorcery if they make your team look bad.

Arizona didn't start the year very high in the S&P+ rankings, and given how the team played this year, I knew it wouldn't look pretty. As it stands currently, Arizona is 85th in S&P+. Oregon State, on the other hand, is ranked 65th.

That's not good, and while the S&P+ numbers look a little wacky right now (Michigan is ranked 3rd, for example), we shouldn't dismiss Oregon State out of hand. True, Oregon State almost got beat by Weber State earlier this year. But their only two losses are to Michigan and Stanford (both good teams whose only losses were road losses to very good teams), and they beat San Jose State by exactly the same score as Auburn beat San Jose State. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have been blown out in back-to-back weeks. The S&P+ ratings should rightfully cause Arizona fans some concern about how this game will go.

12

What the S&P+ ratings don't account for, though, is the fact that Arizona's no. 12, Anu Solomon, is back this week.

I know I took Anu for granted and focused way too much on his limitations. He still hasn't shown great accuracy on his deep throws, and he relies almost entirely on short and intermediate passes and puts the onus on the receivers to generate yards after the catch. The problem with that argument, though, is that Anu is really, really good at those short and intermediate throws. It's easy to take that for granted until you get a quarterback who can't make those same throws.

Moreover, Anu's impact goes beyond those actual passes. His threat as a passer opens things up for Nick Wilson. As the Arizona Daily Star's Zach Rosenblatt pointed out on Twitter, Nick Wilson averages 6.5 yards per carry with Anu Solmon at quarterback and only 4.4 yards per carry with Jerrard Randall at quarterback. That's a huge difference, and it speaks to how Anu's ability to pass the ball opens up space for Nick Wilson to run wild.

161

I blocked this out of my memory, but Oregon State's Storm Woods destroyed Arizona's defense the last time these two teams faced off. As a freshman way back in 2012, Woods ran for 161 yards on the ground against Arizona's defense, averaging 5.6 yards per carry.

Given that Stanford ran all over Arizona's defense last week, this is cause for some concern, especially given that Storm Woods is better at football now than he was back in 2012. The one bright spot, though, is that Oregon State's passing game is nowhere near as good as it was in 2012, when Oregon State featured Sean Mannion at quarterback, with Brandin Cooks and Markus Wheaton at wide receiver. Woods is still a very good running back and could still rack up a significant number of yards against Arizona's defense, but given that Seth Collins is not as good a passer as Sean Mannion, Arizona can afford to dedicate more resources to stopping the run than they could back in 2012.

-10.5

The line for this game opened at Arizona -12.5, but it has since dipped to Arizona -10.5. That's still a pretty big spread for an Arizona team that just got blown out at home against UCLA and on the road against Stanford. Still, this game should be different. Oregon State is no UCLA, Anu Solomon is back and will hopefully play the full game, and did I mention that Oregon State is no UCLA? A win in this game would put Arizona back on-track for bowl eligibility and show, at a minimum, that the Wildcats don't belong in the bottom tier of the Pac-12. It's an opportunity they need to take advantage of this week .

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