Arizona vs. Stanford: Previewing the Game by the Numbers

Probably no Anu Solomon means Jerrard Randall is likely to start at quarterback. We take a look at what that means by the numbers.

Anu Solomon is probably out with a concussion for the Arizona Wildcats' upcoming game against the Stanford Cardinal. How will the game look without him? Let's take a look at some of the numbers.

31.6

Jerrard Randall's completion percentage this year is 31.6%. That's not good! On the year, he is 6 of 19 for 58 yards. That means he's averaging 3.1 yards per attempt. If he were averaging twice that - 6.2 yards per attempt - that would still be really bad. As we saw last Saturday, Randall only throws fastballs, and that makes it much more difficult for his receivers to catch the ball, much less make a play after the catch. Maybe with a week of reps he'll improve, but I'm not optimistic about Randall's potential as a passer.

4

...but with the number of rushing touchdowns Randall has racked up, does it matter? Randall is an absolute beast in the running game with four rushing touchdowns this year to go along with 337 yards on 22 attempts. That's 15.3 yards per carry. If his yards per carry were half that, his YPC stats would still be impressive. Randall's running ability is amazing and makes up for his deficiencies in the passing game. When coupled with Nick Wilson, Arizona's running game has huge potential.

132.5

...but the problem is that Stanford has a very good run defense. Stanford is only allowing 132.5 rushing yards per game, and Stanford opponents are only averaging 3.61 yards per carry. Worse, Stanford will know going into this game that, if Randall is playing, Arizona has to run the ball. That means their already-stout run defense will be able to anticipate Arizona's play calling. They'll look even better than they already are. As the Wildcat Radio guys pointed out earlier this week, Stanford was able to slow down the Oregon State running attack last week (limiting them to 111 yards on the ground), and they'll pretty much have the same game plan against us. True, Randall and Wilson are more dynamic runners than Oregon State's crew of running backs, but Randall isn't as proficient a passer as Seth Collins, so Arizona will not even have the same options in the passing game as Oregon State had. Suffice to say we're in trouble.

65

On the other side of the ball, Arizona's rushing defense doesn't look that bad. The unit is ranked 65th in the country, allowing only 3.57 yards per attempt and only 162.3 yards per game. Seems pretty fine, right?

Well, numbers lie. First, Arizona has played very weak opposition - no Power 5 opponents besides UCLA - so the numbers are less impressive than they appear. Worse, Arizona has to go up against a power running team in Stanford that won't be afraid to throw extra offensive linemen onto the field to open up holes for the running backs. That puts a lot of pressure on Arizona's linebackers, a unit that has been riddled by injuries to this point. Expect to see Stanford run the ball early and often this week.

13.5

Somehow, despite all of this potential trouble, Stanford is only a 13.5 point favorite. Given Anu Solomon's injury, Randall's limitations throwing the ball, Arizona's myriad of injuries to the defense (including to Scooby Wright), and the fact that this game is at Stanford, that's not very many points. I'm no gambling expert, but I can't help but think Stanford will win by more than that. Vegas, though, is smarter than I am, and maybe Arizona's chances in this game aren't as dire as they appear at first glance. With a little bit of luck - and maybe a few big runs from Randall and Wilson - maybe Arizona can pull this one out.

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