Arizona basketball: KenPom ranks Arizona #6 in his preseason rankings

In KenPom we trust, hopefully.

This week, Ken Pomeroy released his 2016 Preseason Rankings for college basketball. To my surprise, Arizona is one of KenPom's top ranked teams at #6 overall.  This is higher than I expected, particularly when he ranks another Pac-12 contender, the California Golden Bears, #47. While I love seeing Arizona ranked so high, I wondered why the Arizona Wildcats would be ranked higher in KenPom's system(#6) than they are in the coaches' poll (#10).

The discrepancy probably lies in how KenPom's system constructs preseason rankings. As Pomeroy explained back in 2013, his preseason rankings are computed by adding "team baseline + personnel." Arizona is going to have a high baseline considering how well the team has played in recent years, so I suspect Arizona ranked very well in that category.

The personnel side, though, is more interesting. KenPom's system does not take into account "high impact transfers," which means Ryan Anderson, Mark Tollefsen, and Kadeem Allen have no impact on Arizona's high ranking even though they'll be key contributors for the Wildcats this year. In some sense, then, KenPom's system may actually still be underrating Arizona given that all three of these players will see significant time this year.

The projection also considers top 100 recruits, so Allonzo Trier and Chance Comanche contribute to Arizona's ranking. It's unclear whether the system considered Ray Smith, another top 100 recruit who was lost for the season late last week with a torn ACL.

Finally, Arizona returns a number of important players (Kaleb Tarczewski, Gabe York, Elliott Pitts, and Parker Jackson-Cartwright) that all factor into this ranking. Even with these returning players, though, it is surprisingly to see Arizona ranked so highly given that KenPom's system does not consider transfers and given how many important pieces (T.J. McConnell, Brandon Ashley, Stanley Johnson, and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson) Arizona lost from last year's team.

Above all, then, this projection reflects how good Arizona has been in recent years. While we've been disappointed by a couple of heartbreaking Elite Eight finishes, Arizona has consistently been one of the best basketball programs in the country during Sean Miller's tenure. So even though fans are prepared for a little bit of a down year (relatively speaking), there is plenty of reason to believe this team can do great things this season.

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